EOS 2.82% $1.21 electro optic systems holdings limited

It's Time for a Sentiment Change, page-22

  1. 5,189 Posts.
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    Morningstar have some deficiencies in their methodology that would lead me to be very skeptical of their valuation for EOS:
    1. Their formulae are based on a fairly standard commercial money flow from sales revenue through costs (manufacture, distribution, operation, depreciation, taxation) to net profit through a derived earnings multiple to share price. It doesn't apply to a business such as EOS where there are different businesses ranging from relatively mature (defence, communications) through start-up (Spacelink) to R&D (space tracking) and profit from one business is used to subsidise other businesses. This is exacerbated by the fact that the defence business seems to have hit a particularly nasty dry patch. This is a serious risk and will have the market heavily discounting the share price.
    2. A number of the inputs to the Morningstar formulae are subjective. Five different analysts using the same model are likely to produce five widely varying valuations. Examples of these subjective inputs are "economic moat" and "uncertainty rating". You just need to scan a few Hotcopper posts on EOS to see how the moat for this one company can be considered massive by some and negligible by others.

    https://www.morningstar.com.au/Stocks/Methodology

 
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