Appreciate the feedback Ausheds. That's what I was looking for, to test my thinking.
Your realised price 2014 of $22/kg is 26% below my assumption of $30/kg. It reduces the gross margin on my model from about $90m to $40m for the year, less corporate costs and financing.
It's still above breakeven though and I could live with that for the moment and let them improve margins over time.
I also suspect my assumed cost of production could be a lot less for the reasons stated in my initial post. Either way I'm comfortable with the margins I've assumed.
Nevertheless whether you're right or I'm closer, it's good to put a couple of markers out there and to understand the implications ahead of whenever Lynas give us the information.
LYC Price at posting:
37.7¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
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