Orwell,
I think the realised basket price stated by ausheds is a little on the low side. It is also trending upwards, but for conservatism I get that you have left it at 30 bucks a pop. After all, the analysts have done precisely this so at the very least its reasonably.
I have run my numbers on an "all in basis" to include all costs, production, interest, corp costs, wages, the telephone bill, the lot. I'm using $20 per kg all in. To me it makes for a "less cluttered" analysis and I know analysts DONT think this way. They separate out corp costs etc. My logic is that it comes off the bottom line so include it.
From previous discussions with certain people, my understanding is that they are indeed going for an "all in" cost of high teens. Louiza Catanzaro at the last quarterly seems to have intimated this (from memory).
Another point. For September quarter I would take a mid point of for the basket price and not $30. Also I would suggest using 200 tonnes for the quarter not 300. Eric said a "couple hundred tonnes". Somehow this morphed into 300-400 tonnes by the wording of the BBY Analyst and NOT Eric. If you go back to the transcript you will see I'm correct. Using 200t will not hurt. Also take a mid point of around $24-$25 basket for September quarter. If product has been gradually produced and sold through the quarter it would have been at market (FOB China - per previous announcements) and the price started to rise from its lows inthe quarter. Maybe maximum of half of whatever is produced for September quarter would have been sold at $30.
One thing I personally do not want is for shareholders to be deluded into expecting 300 tonnes. We may well get that. But dont be surprised to see 200t or less. Equally for Eric "low" might mean 400-500t. Just don't know. I would go with 200T. 300T I would be very happy.
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