I've been trying to reason the SP behaviour, just for a bit of...

I've been trying to reason the SP behaviour, just for a bit of fun.

If we imagine two sides of the market participants in NEN, you can boardly categorise them as follows:
1. Short-term traders
2. Long-term investors

This may surprise many, but the highest price seen in recent months ($0.35) was recorded befor spud. This basically occurred between 26/6 ($0.21) to 27/7 ($0.35). This is interesting because it confirms a behavioural aspect; the market wasnt interested in Cua lo results it was interested in the run up to spud. This indicates that there are a lot of short-term positions. This has actually been confirmed in the price action post-spud; despite getting status updates the SP has gone nowhere but down since the 11/8 (spud). Additionally volumes has been relatively low on a day to day basis. Again this is consistent with ST positions - LT investor positions are typically larger on a holder by holder basis.

There are various reasons for the ST bias..could roll up to risk averse environment etc.

When I think about the category I belong to (LT), and think about what I am waiting for then it is also consistent with SP behaviour. My position was in long before spud. I have accumulated but I havent committed all that I have. My average is ~$0.29. Im waiting for a result on B105 before doing anything further. This seems to explain the buy-side which has been thin for a long time now. I'd say a lot of cash is waiting on the sidelines. This indicates to me that if Cuo lo is a success, its going to run very very hard over a sustained period of time.

As I said, just a theory.