DB, I don't expect a premium, simply fair value for the resource. I think valuing off 2P is a waste of time, 3P gives a much more complete picture of the mature resource. 70 cents a GJ is fairly standard I feel.
ESG currently has 2797 PJ of 3P. That would equate to a rough value of 1.96 billion dollars on current 3P. We are currently valued at around 610 million.Therefore (if we are talking premiums) I feel that a 220% premium would be an appropriate figure. That's prior to the 1 and a half year upgrade that is about to occur. Personally I'm expecting a 50% increase on these figures at a minimum. There is 6215Pj of 3C sitting there as well, plus the non PEL 238 resources...
Might be worth everyone having a look at the green bar on this page http://www.easternstar.com.au/reserves.html
Notice how it's getting exponentially larger? The sharepice might be going down, but that just means the value gap is widening. You could float the prelude LNG vessel through the chasm at the moment.
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