Ivan (if he is the strategic partner) is in it for the money....

Ivan (if he is the strategic partner) is in it for the money. Maybe he does care about the workers but he didn’t get to where he is by being charitable.

I still think he will buy out NKP with plans to relist on the JSE. They haven’t detailed how many of Genorah’s 365M NKP shares they will buy, other than saying it is a significant portion. That can mean anything and they can buy on-market slowly in the next 4-6 weeks and build up a good stake. Then they buy Genorahs shares and launch a takeover.

I think they can buy NKP for about $150M.

Then if the Anglo dispute is settled, the 100% of Garatau and what’s left of the other farms could be worth say $500M in an IPO.

Genorah gets 26% of that in shares for its direct stake in Garatau.

Ivan dilutes his 74% to say 40% by offering shares to IDC and others. That results in 34% X $500M = $170M in cash from the IPO. That could be used as equity with the balance being debt funded for the capex.

So in the end, Ivan gets 40% of a $500M company which is fully funded through to development and he has paid $150M.

There are many variations to this example. Ivan could sell down to say 20% and get nearly all his money back and be free-carried with 20% of the new company. In the end, he has seen Genorah and NKP desperate and he will make the big gain. I still think an offer pitched at 25c will get him to the 90% holding.