IVR Breakout. About time !, page-181

Ghostwriter,,, sorry couldn't copy/re-post your heading.

Yeah, all good. I figured I may have missed your point. And I agree.

I view lots of Interviews from both the good and the bad (and ugly- ie. perhaps those with more than a vested interest) _

I have a reasonable interest in all manner of PM's as like a few others here, and so interested in the machinations of the market. TA has always been a cerebral exercise for me (30 years?) , and has helped me make a living in previous markets.

There's a lot of debate around why the miners/explorers aren't really catching on yet to the price of PM's.

I tend to favour a few reasons, including the following: (and sure there's a lot more.)
(Nothing new here, but I have to keep reminding myself for sanity sake! )

1. Generally Larger caps move first (in any sector) as fund managers start re-allocating some of their capital (ie 'the big money')
Then following on, frothers and traders start looking to up the ante, and for short term opportunities.
Then obviously the trend/boom 'a la Lithium' experience. (I think that's to come, shortly, in the PM space). There is emerging evidence that they (the fundies) are just now starting to move. And I've seen some stats in that regard.
(until we see a 'reversion to mean': ie 2%++ of their allocation to PM's instead of current 0.5% then we can only start taking positions, and waiting for the catch up..)
Generally short term traders and 'frothers' rely on momentum and the usual media narrative. That is not happening yet. Perhaps when the fund managers start , media will catch on.

2. Those fund managers are loathe to miss out on any uptrends for their clients that ask 'why they don't have more NVIDIA', or the other 4 or 5 companies driving the NASDAQ - I think CNBC is in the NASDAQ building NY for a reason?.. ..
So that's where they are (ie NASDAQ) ,,, UNTIL THEY'RE NOT! .. (bring it on!)

3. The cost of actual mining and AISC has risen substantially (or certainly there is that perception) due to higher energy costs (diesel), labour and other costs. - inflation... So it may take a couple of quarters for those managers to assess the increased profitability with respect to the increase in price of PM's over expenses.

4. There is also suggestions that the sector has been pretty lazy and not very efficient in management of resources, including mineral resources, use of capital, labour, exploration, costs etc etc. I'm not sure , but I think due to a lot of money sloshing around over the past 5-10 years - perhaps they have? As the fund managers start assessing new positions perhaps it may force these companies to get their act together?

and my last fav...

5. Some are not quite believing the imminent rise in price of PM's as they watch the cartels run through their process of rinse repeat price 'management'.(ie allowing the price to drift up (through Australasia/European time) only to short the bejesus out of the PM's when it suits them. (like 9am NY time!) Disheartening at best). There are various reasons I've heard for them doing this.. Jury is still out for me.
However, there is lots of folks suggesting it's the same old routine.. (how many times do these guys get to be caught manipulating markets and fined, and and yet it would seem that they may be continueing the same exercise-- man, google silver manipulation - it's mind boggling - it's not a conspiracy , it's public record) But many believe they can't do it for much longer, with the physical supply/demand in deficit and worsening, and that they're starting to get desperate(?), (and even visiting china to get delivery?) . I'm not so sure,, but that's one theory, and it makes some sense to me.

So Step
1, Fund managers, Media narrative.
2. NASDAQ cools a little.
3. Assessment of current profitability of miners.
4. Can they tidy up their act?
5. Can the shortage in real silver blow up a couple of bullion banks,, or give them a serious scare?

Not necessarily in that order of course ?

Not 'facts'. Just my present view of things, feel free to disagree, add or subtract, I'm always willing to entertain new information, and debate.

But essentially I'm happy to wait it out, as I think we're in for multiples eventually...