Wheres can this UPI article be found that everyone keeps referring to??
The Drudge report times out.
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Every time I login to HC this article (pasted below) pops up on 'Corporate Spotlight'. Dated Apr 2019 but as most of 2020 was a write off for any trials or research etc then everything they want to achieve is likely a goal so I think IVX is just delayed like many others but not anywhere near dead. Funded totally by The Cho Group am sure they are very keen to succeed. We all lose faith but often good to have a refresher on goals.
http://chogroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/March-Corporate-Presentation-IVX.pdf
I think the increase in Shares for sale is because the Shareholders just got given a distribution & as many do they just try to sell them immediately like Underwriters of CR always do as in just sell without thinking of what a successful outcome in future could do to the price. (I am buying more)
The article by VPP was paid for same as many ASX Companies often request Research Companies to review & report on themselves to highlight to the public & investors what they are actually doing. If this PDT works as they expect well... WOW - what a great way to zap out Cancer!!Is this the next ASX biotech facing a Phase 3 clinical trial share price re-rating?
By Vantage Point Partners 1 April 2019
There are few other more exciting events than a Phase 3 clinical trial for the biotech sector as this is the usually last big test that will determine the commercial success of a new drug or treatment.
This is why it pays to keep a close eye on biotech stocks that are heading towards this critical milestone. Biotechs like Melbourne-based Invion Limited (ASX: IVX), which anticipates commencing Phase 3 trials for a new cancer treatment later this year.
What’s more, a leading biotech analyst considers the stock may ultimately trade at multiples of what it is trading at now and that investors may not need to wait long to see a re-rating.
These aren’t the only reasons to put Invion on your watchlist. This biotech’s business model is aiming to address some of the biggest bugbears of biotech investors, including:
- Knowing how much good news is yet to be priced into the stock
- The long time it takes to get a new treatment to market, and
- Worries of dilutive capital raisings.
What’s in the share price?
Knowing when to buy can be a perplexing question as it’s not easy to value such stocks, which are often considered ‘speculative’. Fortunately, veteran biotech analyst Stuart Roberts from NDF Research provides a good foundation of information in his commissioned research report on Invion.
He carefully analysed Invion’s Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) technology and has come up with a price target of up to 6 cents per share (you can download the full report by clicking here).
That stands in contrast to Invion’s current share price of around 1.3 cents.
PDT is not new. The idea of using light-sensitive drugs to kill cancer cells has been around for many years, although the treatment is yet to reach mainstream.
However, Roberts thinks this could change thanks to the recent European approval of a PDT called Tookad.
Invion’s product, known as IVX-P02, “… has generated some interesting case studies and early clinical data, and the company will now proceed to conduct larger studies aimed at registration in Australia and New Zealand, possibly by 2021,” said Roberts.
“The initial indication will be non-melanoma skin cancer, but there is potential in many other cancers including prostate, ovarian and lung cancers.
“We see significant upside for Invion’s shareholders.”
Not much good news priced into Invion’s stock
The analyst’s 6 cents per price target is based on the mid-point of his probability-weighted discounted cash-flow (DCF) calculation.
Even in the base-case, the Invion’s shares should be worth 3.1 cents a share, while his best-case scenario would see Invion’s valuation jump to 9.1 cents a share.
Roberts’ valuation is based on a 15-year time horizon, valuing the opportunity across the range of indications currently of interest to Invion and assuming Invion would sell its treatment through third-party clinics.
Short path to a $700m plus market
The other notable thing is that Invion is aiming to start its Phase 3 clinical of IVX-P02 in skin cancer by the end of the fourth quarter of this year with the final results expected by the end of the second quarter in 2020.
IVX-P02, previously referred to as PhotosoftTM, is a form of Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) which can be applied on the skin or taken intravenously. The compound attaches itself to cancer cells. IVX-P02 is then activated by a particular wavelength of light and the activated compound kills the cancer cell.
Earlier tests have shown that IVX-P02 is effective at killing cancer cells while leaving healthy cells alone when activated. What’s more, IVX-P02 doesn’t appear to have harmful side-effects on the patient.
The planned Phase 3 trial will test IVX-P02 in treating Basal Cell Cancer (BCC) and pre-cancerous Actinic Keratosis (AK), a skin lesion that can become cancerous.
Invion has the exclusive rights to PhotosoftTM in Australia and New Zealand. Australia as we know is often referred to as the skin cancer capital of the world.
The combined BCC and AK market in Australian is estimated to be worth $703 million and growing. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AK is forecast at 4.4% from 2016 to 2022, while BCC’s CAGR is estimated at 8.9% for the period between 2018 and 2024.
Australia has the highest prevalence of AK with 40% to 60% of the population suffering from the condition.
Even achieving a modest 3%-4% slice of this market is enough to trigger a share price re-rating given Invion’s market cap of around $70 million. Biotech stocks with operating revenues of around $20 million to $30 million include:
- Medical Developments International Ltd (ASX: MVP) with a market cap of around $300 million
- Mesoblast limited (ASX: MSB) with a market cap of nearly $600 million
- Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: CUV) with a market cap of around $1.3 billion.
IVX-P02 may also be an effective treatment against other cancers like prostate and ovarian and you can read NDF’s research report (click here) on the other opportunities Invion is pursuing.
Low risk of dilution
Raising capital is one of the biggest challenges facing biotechs, which normally require multiple rounds of cash injections to complete clinical trials. There’s a saying that when you buy a biotech, you are subscribing to all future capital raises (or risk being heavily diluted).
In Invion’s case, the company’s clinical program is fully funded through an R&D services agreement with Hong-Kong investment company The Cho Group. This reduces, and may even eliminate, the risk of dilutive capital raises for shareholders.
Chance of success
While no two biotechs are alike, there are reasons to think that Invion and IVX-P02 should be successful.
For many patients with SCC or AK, surgery is a common treatment path but this often leads to scarring and skin discolouration. An alternative treatment, another photosensitiser treatment called Medvix, can be painful and is not as effective at removing BCC and AK as surgery, although it leaves no marks on the skin.
This is why IVX-P02 has high potential as a therapy. Early trials have shown that the technology is effective in treating BCC and AK, is painless and leaves no visible sign of the treatment on the skin.
Follow the money trail
Invion has another edge that few other biotechs enjoy – its management team. Its chief executive, Dr Greg Collier, has successfully taken an ASX biotech through clinical trials and helped engineer its circa $230 million takeover by US pharmaceutical giant Cephalon when he was the CEO of ChemGenex.
You’d be hard-pressed to find another CEO that has led an ASX-listed biotech through registration trials for a cancer drug.
Hudson Institute of Medial Research and Invion have signed a R&D alliance. CEO of Invion, Dr Greg Collier (left), and the Research Group Head (Ovarian Cancer Biomarkers) at Hudson, Dr Andrew Stephens.
There’s a belief among seasoned investors to favour junior mineral explorers with management that have struck gold (or any other resource for that matter) before. This same belief certainly applies to emerging biotech companies.
It’s also worth nothing that several members of Invion’s management team and advisory board have held senior positions in other major pharmaceutical companies like CSL Limited (ASX: CSL).
What’s more, one of Australia’s leading medical research institutions, the Hudson Institute, is a collaboration partner. The institute was formed through the merger of Prince Henry’s Institute of Medical Research and Monash Institute of Medical Research in 2014.
The founder of the Ovarian Cancer Biomarker Group at the Hudson Institute, Dr Andrew Stephens, sits on Invion’s advisory board and he’s excited about the data he’s seen so far.
“The PhotosoftTM characterisation studies demonstrate that PhotosoftTM efficiently produces reactive oxygen species to destroy tumour cells in vitro, and that modulation of light energy can be used to control the mechanism of induced cell death.”
Not a one-trick pony
The initial findings by the Hudson Institute point to a promising path forward for PhotosoftTM and IVX-P02 to be used to treat other insidious cancers like ovarian and mesothelioma (cancer linked to asbestos).
Invion has also announced that it will start a Phase 1 trials for mesothelioma in the September quarter of this year. As you’ll recall, mesothelioma is an insidious cancer of the lungs suffered in particular by people who have had exposure to asbestos. The global malignant mesothelioma market was estimated to be worth $470 million in with a CAGR of around 7.5% between 2017 and 2025.
In addition, Dr Stephens continues his research into using IVX-P02 on ovarian cancer.
Importantly for investors, this means the market can expect a steady stream of news from Invion over 2019 and beyond.
This could be a good time for risk-tolerant investors to position themselves in the stock ahead of the news-flow, particularly Invion’s Phase 3 trial.
This multi-trick pony looks well placed to be a dark horse of the biotech sector!
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Announcement from ERM has made my day. :)
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