Hey guys,
I did some huge digging into Recon Africa today and went through all their generic announcements from beginning of 2020-2022. From the analysis and I have now increased my share price target to $4-$5 on discovery over 1 month and the reason are below:
1. Recon hit a high of 3.5 billion dollars AUD market cap over a period of 2 months after they announced that apparently their data they checked proved a movable hydrocarbon system even before a sample was ever taken
2. Recon resource size on that 3.5 billion dollar valuation was 1tcf of gas and 1 billion barrels of oil vs IVZ 20tcf of gas plus 4.5 billion barrels of oil.
3. Recon had no drill breaks, 200m interval which was split into 3 layers apparently containing movable hydrocarbons which it didn’t vs IVZ 900m interval which the hydrocarbons are through to depth, average fluorescence vs 100 percent fluorescence, elevated gas levels were poor and not to total depth vs IVZ high elevated gas levels and to total depth
4. reservoir was not filled to spill
5. Never ran gamma ray or resistivity logging
6. based their whole movable hydrocarbon system on average fluorescence vs IVZ very high fluorescence (100 percent)
7. Poor seal vs IVZ strong seal
8. Very announcements repeating we have hydro carbon system but no talk fluid test done which was very weird
9. Recon was a scam and management hiding behind rubbish claims without actual numbers and proof vs IVZ the real deal
Company has called it already and we are 99 percent de risked I’ve got $4-$5 price target within a month of announcement and could go higher based of Recon valuations. Gas resource 20 times bigger and 5 times bigger in oil reserves
