Did some further research last night and came across a...

Did some further research last night and came across a comparison Scott made back in September and I thought it would be interesting look at it from a chart perspective.

Scott put up the below chart of ReconAfrica - which was a sovereign energy play in Namibia.



Was curious so I looked into a proper price chart of ReconA. You can see here how crucial the neckline was in giving investors some clues as to where a break out could occur. It tested 88c for a little while and clearly they had a break through moment that took prices way WAY higher, topping out around $14 (holly fk!!! - (would take that in the context of 2020 QE liquidity though)).




Looking at IVZ below, the structure of the initial down leg is quite similar. But I would dare say the structure of the up leg since 2020 has a stronger look to it as it looks more gradual and clear in terms of the wave formation i.e a strong build up. You can see we're now hovering around that 32c neck line I mentioned recently.

The kicker with these types of break outs is over time I've found that the ones that set up for the break out during the wave3 are the ones more likely to succeed and keep going and my best guess is that appears to be the case for IVZ. The ones that break out in a wave5 have more trouble sustaining the momentum. There is more to this but in essence it's the best way to explain that idea. Note the green waves marked on the chart are for illustration purposes and not price accurate at this stage.




I think it's worth noting too that this is a crucial play for Zimbabwe on ti's sovereign energy resource so it elevates the level of caution and DD for the drilling company which is showing in Scots measured approach to the whole project. I think it's a big tick.

It will be pretty interesting to see how the market reacts to the upcoming results and the ones for the next drill. As always points made above will only hold true if the results are there to back it up so be aware of the risks.

MK.