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13:17
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Originally posted by timmasbd:
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Hey butch - I just wanted to touch on the statement you made that "our net pay is significantly lower than pre-drill estimates". From the perspective that a number of horizons only showed residual hydrocarbons, you're correct. But I would suggest that we don't have enough information to state anything definitive one way or another. We have no information about the net-to-gross ratios used by ERCE in their estimates, and no idea on the poro and perm values they used (other than some very vague statements about values in-line with relevant literature). I know there's been some statements on here around 25m of net pay used for the LA and UA, but I can't find any evidence anywhere to support this. The only thing we do know is that the closure area that ERCE considered for their estimate was much smaller than the full Mukuyu structure - and hence even if some horizons are "dry" in some areas of the structure, that's probably not a huge deal. From what Scott has said thus far, there sounds like an expectation that some of the upper horizons will be charged in others areas of the Mukuyu structure. We also then need to take into account that the LA may be much thicker than estimated, which will be a positive for the resource size.
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Timmasbad the other thing to bear in mind is MK2 was drilled in this horst block and SM stated it doesn't have horizontal seal in the upper reservoirs.
