Let's take for example the 8.5% porosity sand, which was MDT sampled recently in the UA. If it is a normally pressured reservoir, we would expect it to flow naturally to surface, but probably nothing much to get excited about. On the other hand, if it was an interval in the LA and over-pressured, the initial flow rate would probably be a lot higher, but only for a short duration if too high a drawdown causes rapid pressure depletion and formation compaction leading to a deterioration in flow rate. If the well is only flow tested for a short period of time, they probably won't detect much change due to compaction (porosity and permeability decrease).
The UA has rattier/dirtier sands and we should expect a greater percentage of sands below the petrophysical cut-off level (porosity, Sw and clay content dependent). As you say, any attempt to flow naturally may be disappointing, which is why it will be important to prove to the market that well stimulation is economic. If they don't have plans in place for stimulation who knows where this project will end up and investors will suffer unnecessarily.
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