IVZ

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7.7¢ invictus energy ltd

IVZ - General Discussion, page-1524

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Davy Boy

16,578 Posts.

3969

29/01/24

10:20

Post #: 72105198
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Originally posted by BigAl82956: ↑

Davy oy states:

"IF you worked in oil and gas you would know that when SM states shooting fish in a barrel he clearly means that the COS after you have made a discovery and proved all the requirements for a working HC system have been proved the chances of hitting HC's in subsequent wells is ~ 85%....ie shooting fish in a barrel."

Proving a working HC system has only addessed the basin wide risk not the prospect specific risks asscoiated with future drilling locations. These risks are currently based on 2D seismic and very limited well data. If even one prospect specific risk fails when you drill an exploration well then the well is a failure. Don't confuse encountering residual hydrocarbons in a well with (technical or commercial) success as a result of drilling an exploration well.

In Oct 2023 S&P commodity inisghts noted "over recent years the average success rate in global technical exploration achieved an annual rate within the range of 39-49% owing to technological advancement and streamlined procedures".

I have worked almost all my 30+ year career in upstream oil and gas (including the most recent 15 years in Exploration).

I am confident that the technical COS of the next exploration well drilled in the acerage IVZ has will be significantly less than 85%.

I see no reason for anyone to believe after the 2 recent successful wells in the basin that the chance of technical COS in the next exploration well has suddenly become significaly higher than global averages.

What actually matters to shareholders is the commercial COS which is lessthan the technical COS.

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So far the success rate is 100% and you expect that to go down as the information goes up?

IVZ Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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IVZ - General Discussion, page-1524

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IVZ - General Discussion, page-1524

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