IVZ media thread, page-2309

if we’re flipping a coin there’s a 50% chance of heads or tails. If you flip the coin twice and it lands on heads each time, the chance of it being heads or tails on the third flip is still 50%.

after we drill through the first 2 horizons, regardless of success or not, the chance of the third hole being successful is still 30%.

if discovering an additional horizon in the same stack increased the COS in the original horizons then the geo’s publishing these COS figures would recalculate and increase the COS of each horizon. But they haven’t. Because it isn’t. If we drill through seven dud horizons, each with a 30% COS then the chance of the eighth horizon being successful is still 30%.