IVZ Oil Discovery, page-39

Can understand the sentiment atm based on the previous ANN (that's just O&G) but you can think of the risk premium in more tangible numbers below.

Further consolidation could more than likely close the gap at 24.5c so risks of approx 9-10c based on spot atm. And as I've stated above if it works out the upside could be around 60c (likely over several days though). You need to know what you're doing here in terms of limit orders and slippage etc.

So a rough 3:1 upside vs downside ratio

From that stand point you can overlay factual information at hand and some aspects assumed information not yet released to come to an actionable play on it.

It's understandable for us to give more weight to the Sept & Oct drop as that's one period that stands out atm in terms of recent drops. To me that's and example of where the market had incorrectly priced the stock, as evident with the recovery to higher levels.

Am not always right but that's how I would think about it at this stage.

HTH

MK.