I have just read my first Market Herald article ever. Can’t say I’ll be rushing back as a source of investment information. Here are some points I gleaned from the article (journalists quotes followed by my comments). I will be emailing the journalist and hope others do the same. I believe Scott has had to contact journalists in the past re. similar, let’s help him out a bit here….
[email protected]
•“35.7 million shares have been turned over today.”
- 69.406 million daily volume according to CommSec.
•”Clearly, the majority of those trades are sales”
- I assume this is supposed to read sellers outweighed buyers on the day. A trade means there is a buyer and a seller (or multiple) for an equal quantity of shares.
•”The share price did jump to 18cps in late morning trades”
-The share price opened at 18c, down from the previous close of 20.5c, then, after falling to 15c it did momentarily push back up to 18c.
•”With some 360,000 acres of landholding” -360,000 hectares.
•”investors on Friday were treated to Invictus Energy’s claim the Mukuyu gasfield has been shown to have “a structural closure of over 200 [square kilometres.]””
-This wasn’t a claim made on Friday, nor is it a claim. The 200km2 closure was derived from seismic data, acquired by Mobil Oil centuries ago.
•”While Invictus has found gas on-site, it’s never once hit any volume of gas that matches the expectations which naturally emerge among shareholders when a company regularly points to 20TCF+ gas potential.”
-The 20TCF+ figure is over the entire structure. Invictus have just announced (based on initial net pay of 35m), a potential multi TCF discovery from the first 2 wells drilled in the Mukuyu structure.
•”After running to a total depth of 3,350 metres, the company has hit one zone of gas-bearing geology”
-The initial net pay is from multiple zones within the Upper and Lower Angwa.
•”That means only 1% of the entire well’s measured length intersected gas-bearing geology.”
-This is not a reporting methodology that is ever used in the industry. If it were, almost all successful wells around the globe would sit well and truly in the 1-5% range. These are conservative initial net pay figures only.
•”Mukuyu-1 was much the same”
-No. Night and Day on almost every level.
•”But the company ran into technical trouble in September of 2022, and so built a sidetrack well”
-A well is drilled, not built.
•”In other words, the well – despite Invictus’s best efforts – was a duster, and the market hasn’t heard much about it since”
-Mukuyu-1 was a technical discovery due to multiple gas shows and fluorescence during drilling, they failed to bring sample chambers to surface due to third party tool failures. On 7/12/23 Mukuyu-1 was (retrospectively) declared a discovery due to successful hydrocarbon sampling carried out over the same Upper Angwa zone at Mukuyu-2.
•”Shareholders are now likely to be wondering what happens next for Mukuyu-2, given that the company appears to be planning to move on today.”
-The company is currently running a 7’ liner and have very clearly communicated a planned flow test for early to mid 2024. This will include drilling deeper into the over pressured gas baring zone of the Lower Angwa.
