Does IVZ have the rights to drill for oil and gas? Have they broken any of their contractual obligations?
It seemed likely that the SP would bounce off the historical floor of ~10c, esp. given the recent news regarding Makuyu-2. Many people are feeling jaded and chastened by regret for having investing or investing the amount they did.
If it is true that the flow test will give investors a pivotal indication as to the viability of the resource, and the latter is due sometime next quarter, and that the PPSA should enable IVZ to present a more certain financial outlook for investors, and that the latter is due either this quarter or the next, it follows that there are two crucial catalysts on the short-term horizon, and as more investors start looking forward to the future horizon, the SP may trend upwards in anticipation.
If the first issue is sorted, it seems reasonable, given Zimbabwe's proximity to S Africa, and the latter's dire situation with respect to power generation, and the existence of infrastructure to transmit electricity to S Africa that many more investors will become interested in the resource, esp. from S Africa. This means either that IVZ will become a very important player in the upstream for power generation in southern Africa, or a liability, either to harness the resource for that purpose or because other players want in or a bigger piece of the pie. I don't think there is evidence for the former (IVZ hasn't been dragging its heels, these things just take some time) and I'm not sure how much of a risk the latter is...
There are two more resistance levels: the first at ~6.7c and the second at around 5.4c. The important question for me is where is the bottom?
The IVZ SP has historically tracked the natural gas price fairly reliably. The latter is now trending up.
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