The 20 TCF was an independent number, so to change that they would have had to get that mob to do it again and to be fair 2 wells in 200 sq km basin doesn't mean 20TCF is in any way shape or form impossible and prospective means just that [ unless of course you believe as you do the discovery won't flow at commercial rates ]
Its also the case that they believe oil has passed through those upper horizons, so its either trapped somewhere else or its evaporated.
3 D will tell that story. when it gets done.
Not sure why the company would be signing MOU for gas sales if they didn't think it would flow and given I'm not a reservoir engineer I have to trust those who are or I would sell.
I agree the wells are expensive 2 x sidetracks has not helped.
Its very difficult to state what is expensive though as when was the last time something like this was done? Middle of a world wide pandemic, a country with zero wells ever.....I'll put it this way.
Had you said to me go and build a shed in Zim but you can't get any of the bits you need locally and you have to bring all the gear in from several different countries then the shed cost would be 4 fold, at least, anywhere else......that's just a fact of life.
The sidetrack was fully funded so by my reckoning, I could be completely wrong because there is no way of knowing, that the spend is likely prep for flow testing. The 3D does not have to be done at all yet and SM said 4-5 million initially but now says much much cheaper because they are doing more work themselves. I suspect its on the back burner until after flow test. I don't know what flow test will cost or how much forward spend there has been, its one area I don't like lack of numbers, but its the only thing that has the guaranteed potential to shift the sp if it flows big so its a must do what ever the cost.
Well testing. Exalo are onsite as well as the well testers, I can't remember exactly who was retained but I believe it was SLB, its in one of the video's from memory. The flip side of course is also true [ the quarterly suggest this to be the case potentially ] IF SLB decide to take shares not cash then that will mean they have super duper confidence.
I think your tight to poor quality estimate may well be true in some parts of especially Upper A but I doubt that is the case in lower A. One thing that does piss me off is the Woodmac estimate. How did they arrive at 1.3 tcf? I'd love to see what they based their numbers on.
Anyways I can feel you hatred for SM dripping through your post and whilst I have some sympathy with your view I believe it will flow at a commercial rate. I also believe MK2 will be set for a producer and I also believe that production can happen quicker that some expect......maybe I'm too positive but if I wasn't I would have bailed long before now.
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