@TryingToRetire @steve3110 below is with regards to the share price discussion in the "media thread"; I'm putting my response here so as not to bring that thread too far off topic.
Regarding share price expectations, although some shareholders had unrealistic expectations, I don't think it was more than a slight majority. Below are several quotes from the most recent JRI fireside chat in which Scott discusses his thoughts on the share price reaction to the discovery. He states that the general consensus both internally and externally was that the share price would sit between 30c and 50c AUD post discovery. That matches my expectation and I'm in the same boat as Scott in not understanding the current share price from a fundamental standpoint. In retrospect, the biggest cause is likely that the company failed to cultivate a group of sophisticated/institutional shareholders who invested in the company based on fundamentals/valuation rather than as a quick flip.
In my opinion, the share price got too high pre-discovery (especially on the OTC) and I sold a portion of my shares. However, the post discovery price makes no sense and I've increased my position by about 7x as a result. I agree the SP is very unlikely to hit 25c AUD in the near term unless there is a JV announcement that values the company at that level (which is a possibility imo). Sentiment is just too poor for the share price to recover to those levels organically.
The relevant quotes are below as well as a link to the interview:
Timestamp 6:37 - JRI: "On a personal level, what's your internal dialog? How do you, knowing what you've accomplished as a company, and you glance over at the share price, which is at give or take 8c, how do you make sense of that? Where's that discrepancy coming from between what you believe it is worth and what the market is judging it to be worth?"
Scott: "It's a real dichotomy for me because if you look at the project, what we've achieved, making two discoveries from Mukuyu-2 and now Mukuyu-1 as well. For a company that's gone into a frontier basin, never been done before, you know that's a phenomenal achievement that not many companies could claim and it's a material discovery that we've worked towards and a lot of people have been part of that journey. For me that's been 12 years now, maybe longer. We thought we were getting towards, if you take a Mount Everest approach, we'd at least got to base camp with getting a discovery. And that was going to be the kind of foundation that we were settling on. We then have a clear runway ahead of us with a material gas field to go and appraise; a huge exploration portfolio as well that's going to unlock additional value and we were going to be off to the races. That's what we genuinely felt leading up to the discovery. That this was going to be it and we were going to be set. Because that's traditionally what's happened for every other company that's made discoveries."
"So really torn in feeling extremely proud but also extremely disappointed because of the share price reaction. And I think that probably came across when we announced the second lot of discoveries on the 15th of December when I had that shareholder briefing. I was getting ready to come into the office to do that briefing and I wasn't watching the screen, the market open, and someone sent me a message on my way in and told me what the share price was and I was just absolutely flabbergasted and I couldn't comprehend it. I think my frustration and terseness came across in that briefing and it's continued since."
"So it's been very hard to reconcile what we know we have, what we've achieved, and how it's reflected in the share price. So that's probably what I'm most disappointed in and as you've said, people have believed in the vision of the company, what we're trying to achieve, they supported us, and we laid out what the criteria that we'd set ourselves leading up to the drilling campaign. We were going to prove a discovery in the Upper Angwa, test the Lower Angwa, and we came up with a discovery there as well. That's what we laid out to achieve, and when we did it and it wasn't rewarded, that was incredibly frustrating. We can get into perhaps what happened and the reason for the reaction, but it's just been really disappointing. The subsequent fall of the share price to where it is now which is at a ridiculous level from a look through valuation perspective. If you look at what we have on our hands from a resource perspective, from a running room perspective, it doesn't reflect the value of the company."
Timestamp 11:45 - Scott: "The general view, and we were having a kind of spread in the office and amongst the insiders about where we were going to end up after the second discovery announcement and the consensus was somewhere between 30c and 50c [AUD]."
Timestamp 15:15 - Scott: "We thought though, that we'd still end up in a positive place. I think everyone, not just internally with Invictus but brokers, investor relations, advisors, you know that was the general consensus that we would end up somewhere between 30 and 50c [AUD]. Because that's what we thought was a reasonable valuation from a market cap perspective based on what we have so far. And that's so far."
Link to interview:
