So unless its a Mandela effect and I'm misremembering, Scott has said more than once that the overpressured zone in the lower angwa will flow. Taking an objective view, good and bad, accuracy vs inaccuracy, truth vs maybe misleading:
---- Accurate/truth ----
Obviously the biggest is that there's gas in the basin. It was never a given in an untested basin, and the declaration of two out of two discoveries in an untested basin is almost unheard of. On the technical side, I can't think of any big items where he was misleading. Can anyone else? That's an honest request.
---- Inaccuracies/misleading ----
PPSA for years... At the same time, he has no control over it and the documents have definitely been drawn up for years so it's understandable to think you'd be close. Funding... he did not say outright but definitely was pushing the narrative that he would not go back to PAC, and that alternative sources of funds were probable, then went back to PAC. Honestly, I can't blame him (too much, though I'm still kind of pissed about it). Firstly, saying that there were alternative sources of funding on the table has turned out to be true, just a longer ways off. And they needed cash at the time, and quickly, and had everyone known a PAC cap raise was coming may have resulted in an even lower SP and raise price.
So I guess my view is that he's been accurate with the technicals, inaccurate with the politics which he was no control over, and one might say misleading with the financing.
Which makes me very confident it will flow, after SM saying it will flow with such certainty, and taking funding from Zimbabwean pension funds and the sovereign wealth fund to fund it after he's made those comments. His reputation's on the line, and he's been conservative in almost everything technical in my view.
So I guess I'm looking forward to the flow test
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