Its even more complicated as imagine if the dice we are using...

Its even more complicated as imagine if the dice we are using may or may not even have a 6 painted on it!

Roll as many times as you like, without a 6 painted on it, you'll never hit.

In our case, we are pretty comfortable knowing there is oil present, so of the 4 major factors source rock and migration are not too big a risk, it will be Reservoir and Trap that will make or break us. After a long time holding, I can't wait to find out.

Source Rock (material from which hydrocarbons form), Migration (whether these hydrocarbon can migrate out of the source rock - Oil seep that we have found shows yes), Reservoir (Porous rock or open fractures present to contain the seeping hydrocarbon) and Trap (how good a seal the reservoir has - no good if it all seeps to the surface)