Not sure how you got to that calculation? Do you have better ideas about fully diluted MCap?
Current IVZOA is 0.044
Current IVZ 0.11
Current MCap is $130 Mil
For the options to be worth anything, the IVZ SP needs to get to 25 cents, which would be the 20c Exercise price and the 4.4 cent and give 0.6 cents profit per option.
This would (lets pretend no dilution, there will for sure be dilution as options get excercised) value the company at roughly $295-300 Mil (0.25/0.11 X 130 Mil)
So I would say the current IVZOA price is valuing IVZ at roughly $300 Mil in 3 years (caveat, with no dilution, call it 350-400 on dilution)
If we don't get to 25 cents, something has gone horribly wrong, and the whole thing is dead regardless, so reasonably low risked vs just heads
I did the maths and decided to sell heads for the oppies, thoughts below:
Some quick mafs:
Lets say for 100K Heads vs IVZOA
100K heads at 0.11 = $11K
Or this gets you 250K IVZOA - ($11K/0.044)
At IVZ = 0.2 (20 cents)
Your 100K heads would be worth $20K
Your 250K oppies would be worth $0K
At IVZ = 0.3 (30 cents)
Your 100K heads would be worth $30K
Your 250K oppies would be worth $25K (always have to minus 250K X 0.2 Exercise price)
NOTE: Your break even of IVZOA being worth it vs heads is about 33 cents
At IVZ = 0.4 (40 cents)
Your 100K heads would be worth $40K
Your 250K oppies would be worth $50K
At IVZ = $1 (Dollar club!)
Your 100K heads would be worth $100K
Your 250K oppies would be worth $200K
For all above, minus $11K off the worth price to get total profit (pretending $0 brokerage)
So my thinking, if you think IVZ will go past 40 cents, the options are a better option currently, and anything past 40 cents amplifies that.
If you think that price will settle around 35 cents or lower, heads are the way to go.
Of course, this is all inane rambling, probably totally incorrect maths, DYOR, NFA, Shlamalamadingdong
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