IXR Charting & T/A, page-17

Please allow me some more time to research before i present concrete opinions. I would usually post on the relevant forum of discussion but i don't have many good things to say as yet and i don't want to post on another stock thread bagging out that stock. If i am quoted to post on that stock i may inject my opinion but would like to form a more balanced view.

That said, for the purposes of IXR holders and general rare earth understanding people should be aware of different deposit as well as their minerology. As this allows you to make a comparitive valuation between them.

Re: Allanite, it's not actually that rare. Here's 63 deposits which contain allanite.
https://mrdata.usgs.gov/ree/ree.php?mineral=allanite

However it La Paz and i think what is inferred in this project is that the rare earths are primarily hosted in allanite rather than just containing allanite.

Refer to the below.
https://ausstocks.com.au/wp-content/uploads/austocks/wml/2011_12_13_WML_1323763245.pdf


Okay so we can assume from this that la paz is primarily hosted in allanite as opposed to an allanite rich deposit. With that in mind people should refer to this document

I found the following deposits which are listed as allanite deposit. i.e. whereby the rare earth is hosted in allanite.
-Nolans Bore 2.6% REO = 26000ppm with 1.4mT
-Atlin Ruffner 2.25% REO
-Foxtrot 1.11% REO for .1mT
-Hoidas Lake 1.64% REO
-Nechalacho 1.47% REO

etc etc anyways there's about 10 most are over 1% REO.
ARR is 0.03% meaning the others are 30-40 times greater in concentration. So regardless of the allanite the other deposits are far far far better grade and still in allanite. A lot of these aren't economical either or not in production for the same reason most hard rocks aren't. High capex, high opex, IMO.


I also found this and took the liberty of calculating a basket price. Noting that they are heavily Light TREO which is the stuff which isn't worth much at all.

Now again people can use whatever pricing they want, there's that many different ones going depending on where you look and what day etc etc. This is one that someone else provided and i punched it in. i actually think the figures are 10-20% too high. Regardless for comparison to Makuutu here we go.



So basically, if ARR produce 100% concentrate (not achievable but theorhetically) this is how much 1kg of that concentrate would be worth. (i'm glossing alot of detail because this is also head grade basket not concentrate basket but for the purpose of exercise let keep it this way (makuutu's concentrate is even better so i'm actually being conservative here)

Essentially it would be worth half as much. But then lets talk actual met results.
-IXR's Makuutu has proven they can produce 90% concentrate. So achieve 90% of that full value call it $44. They then get 75% payability because its easier to convert aka revenue would be $33USD/kg again i think this is too high because the pricing of elements is high but again this is just a comparison.

-ARR wil likely target concentrate of 20-50% this is roughly what all hard rocks target. We'll go 35% in the middle. Meaning that $27 USD/kg becomes $9.5/kg because it's diluted at 35% concentrate (aka only contained 35% rare earths). Then you get 50% payability this is typical of hard rock. meaning you're at $4.7USD/kg.

Now as i've stated, revenue/kg is not everything because if you're opex/kg is low it's ok. for e.g. PM8's was around $2 or something. But what it does mean is your margin is very very tight. if rare earth pricing changes you're dead in the water.

Secondly, most hard rock processing circuitry including allanite deposit is high. Average capex is 350-400mUSD IMO.

So i ask, why would someone want to spend 400M USD to have a small margin mine. When you can spend 40M USD and punch out the same profits. I've included ARR on my table below.



In short,
-I'll need to do more research into exact expected opex's but i expect revenue to be somewhere in that ballpark p/kg.
-There are dozens of allanite deposits with 30 times higher grade. These aren't in production, i'll let the crowd assume why.
-Capex will be high and margin will be low IMO
-basket price is ok but all LREO (HREO are the money)

Apologies about the post here but i wanted to put my thoughts out here first as i don't want to slander another project unneccesarily. If i'm tagged on those threads i will inject my postings, but be aware the feeedback i will receive won't be great and i will need to do more research here before i'm fully comfortable. But yeah give La Paz was being developed (explored in 2011) and has been a dead rubber for 9-10years i don't see it being economical now. It has competitors with allanite hosted rare earth with much better grades.

I would trade ARR because market can be dumb and people will chase US rare earths but IMO it's no good. I'll stick with IXR (100% my rare earth exposure). 45M USD capex for 50-100M USD profit p/a suits me just fine. Chinese dominate rare earths, it's not allanite deposits either, it's ionic clays.

SF2TH