Not much change in the last couple weeks chart wise.
View attachment 2148925
Though looks like the slow stochastic break is close to pushing through. If it doesn't fall in the next attempt it's got until around end of May before it's a forced break upwards.
MACD weekly getting closer to a cross as well.
Albeit the T/A thread was doing some rough calculations on profitability.
View attachment 2148928
So there was some decent concentrate pricing on other threads from PFS/DFS rare earths.
Namely was information provided from paul on another thread which showed that concentrate pricing traded at 70% discount to basket pricing.
Post #:
42144635
"Rainbow Rare Earths 60% concentrate is still getting discounted roughly 70%. $11,500 * 0.60 * 0.3 = $2070/t sale price
Thats for a 60% concentrate.
Longonjo basket $20,000t * 0.35 * 0.3 (Assuming same 70% discount) = $2,100 sale price for a 35% concentrate. Completely supports my comments regarding $2200 Longonjo concentrate price and my post above where earlier in the year Pensana were told they could get $2000/t concentrate.
Also seems to suggest that just because you have a better concentrate grade (60% (requires less processing) you aren't necessarily getting a better deal than those with a 35% grade .
IXR basket $35,000/t * 0.9 (concentrate grade 90%) * 0.3 = $9450."
comparing the rainbow earth to Pensana I make the following comparison.
PM8 has a basket pricing of double rainbow but half concentrate and received the same rough concentrate price. To me that would infer that if IXR produces a grade product 1.5 times (90/60) better than rainbow and has a a basket 3.2 times better (35/11).
This would make IXR's assumed concentrate price at $10,000/t. Now i explained why i think concentrate pricing is not linearly related concentrate. That being that the higher the concentrate % the higher premium it attracts. Basically i think rainbow's pricing is quite poor and without knowing exact details could be to do with deleterious elements or the other elements in the basket. Anyways refer to this post for my explanation on the logarithmic relationship. Post #:
42181843. I also explained why it's better to produce a higher concentrate as your net margin increases assuming linear opex relationship. . Post #:
42822208
Anyways why all this gibberish,
View attachment 2148931
Well using a opex cost based off the comparison to biolantanidos this works out to a rough $4-5 margin AUD. I actually think the opex could be lower but will need to wait for the SS to prove that but as you can see higher grades, less overburden, hydropower etc etc. But for now assuming it's the same that's the margin.
If they target a 3000-5000TPA throughput but believe long term will actually be higher due to sheer upside mineralisation to support but for the calcs we'll use 4000tpa. so that's 4mT of product at 4$ (conservative of the assumptions) which is = 16M AUD profit P/A.
Assuming P/E ratio of 10 = 160M x 60% ownership = 96M or roughly 10 times current market cap.
Obviously that theres quite a few assumptions in all that. The main ones being the concentrate sale price, the opex costs and the annual TPA.
Have based concentrate pricing from other PFS/DFS and stated assumption
Have based opex off Biol ionic rare earth. Chinese produces in southern china suggest 3USD also.
TPA based off similar projects. Should be noted though the satellite arrangement allows for a huge scalability.
Posting sentiment as buy as I had the remainder of partial order filled in the last couple days.
I'm currently an off-screen buyer if it hits .4c as i don't suspect it will get there.
SF2TH
(20min delay)