Second PortionJGH_Model_Page_7_Field Development Planning.pdf
Jade TTCBM Model as of 2022/10/116.00 Reserves Analysis
JGH_Model_Page_5_Reserves-Analysis.pdf
The primary reference document is the analysis done by RISC,entitled Independent Technical Specialist’s Report on the coal seam gasexploration projects of Jade Gas Pty Ltd dated 24/06/2021.
https://riscadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ITSR-on-Jade-Gas-Mongolian-Assets-v1.pdf
Some notes from the above reporton the Tavan Tolgoi area.
Page 8, “The presence ofthick known coal deposits in the Tavan Tolgoi area make the Tavan Tolgoi coalseam gas exploration asset one of the lowest risk coal seam gas explorationtarget areas in the South Gobi Basin.”
The settings used in theModel attempt to reconcile the approach RISC and Jade used in coming up withthe risked 2U reserves and Prospective Areas.
On Page 17 RISC uses an areaof 125 Sq.KM for the Area with Potential Coal but mentions that “Jadehave used a best estimate area of 222 Sq.KM in their estimate of GIIP(Gas Initially in Place).”
After plotting the relativeareas on Google Earth, using it as a planimeter, and being mindful that the extractionarea footprint is open to being increased by directional drilling under themining lease, I have ended up modelling on the 222 Sq.M prospective areaused by Jade.
An (Estimated) 20%recovery of gas in place was used because of the chance of lowered permeabilityat the depth of the coals and some degree of undersaturation due to geologicaluplifting.
Page 8 “Significanteast-west trending thrust faults form the coalfield boundaries throughout muchof Tavan Tolgoi area, bringing underlying, older volcanics and noncoal-bearingformations to the surface and truncating the coal resource areas.”
7.00 Field Development Planning
JGH_Model_Page_7_Field Development Planning.pdf
After a number ofiterations, a target if 150 TJ/day was used.
Early days though and thismay change once production pilot data is available.
The Key Inputs to the Field DevelopmentPlanning Dashboard are the Nominated Recoverable PJ/SQ.KM (Set at 8.11PJ/Sq.KM)and the associated Prospective area (Set at 222 Sq.KM).
Production cost /GJ wise, (Amongsta whole lot of other parameters), the model is sensitive to the RecoverablePJ/SQ.KM setting and the Well Spacing setting.
On Page 19 “RISC considersthe calculated well spacing for the recovery estimate of between 224 m and251 m is very tight” and I would hope that the 600M spacing used byRISC on Page 21 of the same report using “An alternative approach tocalculating resource potential of an area is working up from well ultimaterecovery expectations and well density”, would result in a 20% gas inplace recovery factor.
The model is presently seton the 234 M spacing to provide a more conservative analysis.
Again, pilot results shouldgive a much better understanding of this.
8.00 Preliminary Budgets
JGH_Model_Page_11_Preliminary_Budgets.pdf
These are best guesses atthis stage and can be overridden by the slide-bars on the GSA Pricing summarypage.
9.00 Strategic Planning
JGH_Model_Page_13_Strategic_Planning.pdf
This automated output fromthe model is intended as a storyboard to facilitate strategic planning.
I am acutely aware of my ownlimitations as I undertake the modelling process and there is no way it doesn’tcontain errors, but I hope that it gives readers a useful perspective of thisexciting project.
All the best and GLTA
Regards
OGP
