toby.
Iron ore should fall back to pre 2008 prices.
China economy is now 80% fixed assets.
Pre GFC fixed assets were 60% GDP, something has to break.
Australia fixed asset investment is 28% of GFC, this indicates how much china is supported by Government intervention.
If China reduced fixed asset investment by 20 to 30% of GDP there would be civil unrest and extreme deflation.
A 30% reduction in fixed asset investment would result in loss of $2.7 billion USD in GDP.
You can then kiss all the foreign reserves good bye and they might sell off gold.
Bhp real growth will come at the bottom of the market when all others are squeezed out.
jansen potash decision could be weeks away, page-2
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$41.98 |
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