JAT (ASX) JAT chart (Only)

Originally posted by chapu ↑

Below is a brief summary of what I believe have been key announcements for JAT over the past 6 months. These snippets raise of couple of key questions for me, and provide reasoning as to why I don’t see CFDA approval for GK igniting the share price as much as what is being described by many here.
I’m more than happy to be proven otherwise, don’t get me wrong. However, I think it’s key to address some of the risks and comment as to how upcoming announcements may already be somewhat factored into the price.

28^th November 2011 – Chairman’s address to Shareholders
“A strong working relationship with CIQ (China Inspection and Quarantine), and CFDA (China Food and Drug Administration) allows JAT to secure the approvals necessary to allow new and existing Australian products to be sold in Chinese shops and supermarkets.”

8^th December 2018 – Update on Milk Product Export to China
“…announce that 100% owned subsidiary Cobbitty Country Pty Ltd (Cobbitty Country) is finalising logistics for the delivery of its first orders for its foundational product.”
“…Jatenergy will be signing production and distribution agreements to get the product ready for Chinese CFDA approval during the next two months. Sales for this product will be imminent on completion of this successful registration.”
“This year, having successfully established JAT in the market, our strategic emphasis is on increasing sales profitability…”

28^th December 2018 – Acquisition of Golden Koala
“…Shares in Golden Koala will be held by our dedicated milk powder company Cobbitty Country to maintain current product trading from our own infant and adult milk powder.”

26^th March 2018 – Further Update – Chinese Regulatory Approvals and Update – Chinese Regulatory Approval
“The announcement stated that Golden Koala had CFDA (Chinese Food and Drug Administration) approval to sell infant formula in China. That statement was not correct. Golden Koala has CNCA (Certification and Accreditation Administration of the People’s Republic of China) approval only.”
“The CNCA approval for Golden Koala product is issued in the name of the manufacturer engaged by Golden Koala, in this case, Nutritional Choice Australia Pty Ltd. This allows Golden Koala to sell its approved products in China. In addition, Golden Koala has approval to export and sell dairy product to China,”
“…preparing an application to the CFDA (and now the new regulator) to export infant formula to China based on the revised regulatory requirements, expecting to formally lodge the application in April or May 2018.”
“…directors of Jatenergy and Golden Koala believe that the Chinese authorities will ensure that the necessary regulatory changes are implemented to continue the import of products…”

27^th April 2018 – Appendix 4C Quarterly
“…In conjunction with 100% owned Cobbitty Country Pty Ltd , Golden Koala is part of JAT’s strategic move to develop its own brands for crossborder sale and export to China…”

Questions and comments that I have based on these snippets include;

What is the status of the CFDA application for the Cobbity Country products? This process was stated to be completed within two months, as per statement on the 8^th On the 28^th November, JAT stated that they have strong work relationships with CFDA so why the delay?

Note that the share price jumped significantly only the 8^th December indicating that subsequent CFDA approval for Cobbity was assumed as a formality.

The clarification update sent on 26^th March regarding the non-CFDA approved status of GK sparked the sell down from 0.290 to current price – does that not indicate that perhaps investors had already factored in this approval? At best, when CFDA approval comes, is 0.300 going to be the status quo price? Possibly.

JAT stated that the CFDA application was going to be formally lodged in April or May. Does the Cobbity CFDA issue raise any concern to this? Possibly.

Once some of these key questions are answered and satisfied, the company becomes much more derisked. That opens the door to commence the revenue drive, and increased profitability, that management has outlined as their key strategic objective. Only then, will the share price see strong quarter on quarter growth. Without revenue, announcements will only provide short term pump and dumps.

Expand

I am not sure of investing yet. I'd wait until the end of May because the prospectus allows >200 million shares in the hands of "insiders" to be unloaded. Too bad if I miss out on any significant SP increase!

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	10146	73.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

10146

73.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
75.0¢	3334	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

75.0¢

3334

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	10146	0.735
1	25000	0.730
2	31388	0.720
1	10000	0.715
2	20000	0.705

No.

Vol.

Price($)

10146

0.735

25000

0.730

31388

0.720

10000

0.715

20000

0.705

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.750	3334	1
0.760	10000	1
0.780	5840	2
0.785	1500	1
0.795	10808	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.750

3334

0.760

10000

0.780

5840

0.785

1500

0.795

10808

(20min delay)
Last 75.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $62.86M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

JAT chart (Only), page-431

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