I'd say at this stage, JB is shuffling around the last of their...

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foo ling yu

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08/12/18

14:58

Post #: 36793793
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Originally posted by chuk ↑

I'm not sure if this is a reliable way of estimating sales.
I have monitored 13 stores from Sunday night through to early this morning for 5 days of trading (Mon-Friday). No weekend sales included at this stage.
Last Sunday night, Mile End had 3 grey, 0 pink, 0 blue and 2 red. This morning they had 5 grey 1 pink, 0 blue and 2 red.
This shows they have 2 more grey and 1 more pink so they must have re-ordered. How many were re-ordered and how many sold to arrive at 5 grey this morning? Did they receive 6 more to bring it up to 8 and then sell 3 through the week to end up at 5? Or did they order only 2 and sell no grey?
If they re-ordered grey (which they had 3 of on Sunday) then wouldn't they have re-ordered blue and red (which were at 0 and 2)? Pink is now at 1 (was 0 last Sunday). Surely they wouldn't have ordered 1 only so did they order 8 and sell 7? Or did they order 3 and sell 2? Blue and red are unchanged. Did they order and then sell those same ordered quantities to end up where they were on Sunday on those two colours? Does it make any sense that they would order grey but not blue which was at 0? How many did this store actually sell? Pure guess work.
In contrast to this, Westfield Sydney showed 4, 2, 5 and 3 last Sunday and exactly the same this morning. Could such a busy centre in the middle of Sydney have sold zero or did they order 3 of each colour and sell 3 of each colour. I think both scenarios are unlikely. I think their stock numbers are not being updated using this method of checking.
Strand Arcade Sydney on the other hand appears to have sold 3 grey and 1 of each of the other colours for a total of 6 watches over the same 5 day period (Mon-Friday).
I also know (from calling and asking) that a store had 2 or 3 grey in stock even though the website showed out of stock on that particular colour. So when the website shows zero on a particular day, they may actually have 3. Check again 2 days later and it may still show zero (if no stock came in) but they may have actually sold all 3 that were in stock 2 days earlier.
I have my doubts that this method is giving us reliable info on how many are actually being sold. We need the next trading update to get some idea on actual sales through the stores. All we really know so far (from what the company has said) is that some stores re-ordered quite early on after initially stocking. So early sales should have been strong.

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I'd say at this stage, JB is shuffling around the last of their stock to maximise return on their initial purchase.

Anyone in business knows that you don't make money on a box of apples until you've sold the very last bag.

I think JB would be reluctant to place another big order this close to Xmas when they don't know how it will perform post holiday period. I tend to think sales will remain strong atleast up until school returns but I doubt if JB is willing to take that risk.

MWR Price at posting: $4.04 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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