Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h The deal would provide a narrow window of opportunity to stop the wider war that should be seized, but will just be a first step on the long road to peace.
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h Saudi Arabia has been trying to broker a deal between the since battles on Aden and Shabwa / Abyan in August. Saudis want to prevent renewed violence within anti-Huthi bloc which undermines the overall bargaining positions with the Huthis - and present a united Yemeni front.
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h What would a détente in the south mean for the wider war? The Huthis have asked for a cessation of cross-border attacks from Yemen in exchange for a halt to Saudi airstrikes and easing of restrictions on fuel imports into Hodeida. Saudis appear to be receptive to deescalation.
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h Optimistic read: A deal between the STC and Hadi would provide a platform for the anti-Huthi bloc to enter future political negotiations.e Saudis would encourage such negotiations if their concerns were addressed beforehand through direct talks with the Huthis..
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h But let’s not forget the Stockholm Agreement! Deal inked by the Huthis and GoY in Dec. 2018 calls for the demilitarization of Hodeida. Negotiations implementation ongoing since this January with little progress on the ground apart from unilateral Huthi moves rejected by GoY.
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h I'd argue at least partial implementation of the agreement is a necessary precursor to peace talks. But movement is unlikely until the conflict over the south is resolved and it is clear where the balance of power lies across Yemen.
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h So to get to national political negotiations to end the war we need the Jeddah Agreement at a minimum to prevent a war within a war in the south; partial implementation or at least not a collapse of the Stockholm Agreement; and an informal Huthi-Saudi accord. Simple, right?
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h Pessimistic read: If the Jeddah Agreement doesn’t work out there is a real possibility of a return to conflict in the south, which bolsters the Huthi position and delays national peace talks., or...
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h ... If there is a deal, there the newly-(re)united anti-Huthi bloc may try to give the Huthis a bloody nose before negotiating so we could see the tempo of fighting on the ground increase in the short term, potentially round Hodeida.
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h Cause for hope: The Saudis and Emiratis don’t want a regional war with Iran and want out of #Yemen. 2020 Pres elections in US mean Riyadh/AbuDhabi won’t want Yemen war to be a talking point in FP debates. President Trump could use a diplomatic win of the kind Yemen offers.
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h Best case scenario: The war is halted (but not ended), new internal conflicts averted. #Yemen enters a managed transitional period that is expanded to include a wide array of voices, not just the guys with guns. It's imperfect but improves lives and privileges talk over tanks.
Peter Salisbury@peterjsalisbury·15h Getting just this far will be an migraine-inducing process. But a first step is just about possible right now. The opportunity will be fleeting and fragile. The alternative is five more years of pointless, inconclusive war.
PSA Price at posting:
4.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
