Jefferies reiterates 'buy on Northern Star Resources, page-5

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For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it completely lacks a track record of revenue and profit. And in their study titled Who Falls Prey to the Wolf of Wall Street?' Leuz et. al. found that it is 'quite common' for investors to lose money by buying into 'pump and dump' schemes.

So if you're like me, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST). Now, I'm not saying that the stock is necessarily undervalued today; but I can't shake an appreciation for the profitability of the business itself. Conversely, a loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the sweet milk of external capital may run sour.

See our latest analysis for Northern Star Resources

How Quickly Is Northern Star Resources Increasing Earnings Per Share?

If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS). It's no surprise, then, that I like to invest in companies with EPS growth. Northern Star Resources managed to grow EPS by 12% per year, over three years. That's a good rate of growth, if it can be sustained.

I like to take a look at earnings before interest and (EBIT) tax margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. Northern Star Resources shareholders can take confidence from the fact that EBIT margins are up from 17% to 24%, and revenue is growing. Ticking those two boxes is a good sign of growth, in my book.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings, and revenue, over time. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart.

ASX:NST Earnings and Revenue History June 15th 2021

Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for Northern Star Resources.

Are Northern Star Resources Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Like that fresh smell in the air when the rains are coming, insider buying fills me with optimistic anticipation. This view is based on the possibility that stock purchases signal bullishness on behalf of the buyer. However, insiders are sometimes wrong, and we don't know the exact thinking behind their acquisitions.

Not only did Northern Star Resources insiders refrain from selling stock during the year, but they also spent AU$132k buying it. That's nice to see, because it suggests insiders are optimistic. Zooming in, we can see that the biggest insider purchase was by Lead Independent Director Anthony Kiernan for AU$66k worth of shares, at about AU$9.48 per share.

The good news, alongside the insider buying, for Northern Star Resources bulls is that insiders (collectively) have a meaningful investment in the stock. With a whopping AU$101m worth of shares as a group, insiders have plenty riding on the company's success. This should keep them focused on creating long term value for shareholders.

While insiders already own a significant amount of shares, and they have been buying more, the good news for ordinary shareholders does not stop there. That's because on our analysis the CEO, Stuart Tonkin, is paid less than the median for similar sized companies. For companies with market capitalizations over AU$10b, like Northern Star Resources, the median CEO pay is around AU$4.5m.

The Northern Star Resources CEO received total compensation of just AU$2.1m in the year to . That's clearly well below average, so at a glance, that arrangement seems generous to shareholders, and points to a modest remuneration culture. CEO compensation is hardly the most important aspect of a company to consider, but when its reasonable that does give me a little more confidence that leadership are looking out for shareholder interests. It can also be a sign of good governance, more generally.