Thanks
@trader02Just need to clarify a few points there. The target depth is not 14755 feet (~4.5 km). That is the total length of the drill pipe where the vertical section is~7000 feet ( this is the depth of the Sycamore formation) and then the well is turned horizontal for another ~7000 drilling through the pay zone. The drilling, setting and cementing the casing should take 45 days as per guidance by DP. They should be getting numerous hydrocarbon shows as they drill the vertical well down to the Sycamore because there are a number of zones above with historical production... they may/ay not report these as they should be depleted or not material . Once they enter the Sycamore zone and turn the well horizontal they will be getting significant hydrocarbon shows all the way along the 7000 feet. They plan to run mud logs as this stage which is the usual course of action, in addition they pretty well have all the geological information they need for the Sycamore from the multitude of historical wells drilled . Their mud log interpretation announcement will be price sensitive material announcement which should hopefully move the share price upwards.
As you said , once the casing is cemented the Latshaw has done it's job and the completion rig moves in .
The completion process will take a few weeks to perforate most of the 7000 ft section in stages and frack each stage. Production facilities will be constructed, gas pipelines, separators, oil storage batteries , etc.
It is VITAL to understand that fracking involves up to 4 million gallons or 100,000 barrels of water and this water has to be retrieved from the zone before hydrocarbons flow. So the water " flowback '' period may take a number of weeks and some people who don't read announcements fully may think the well has failed because it should produce a few thousand barrels a day of water.
Once the flowback period is complete the well will start to produce oil/ gas and they should report an IP24 production number ( first 24 hours of stabilized production) and an IP30 number ( average production for the first month). This will give them a production curve to compare to their estimated curve which will give them some handle on reserves.
The IP24 , IP30 and curve announcements will be material in regards to the share price as this is where determination will be made if the drilling results in production and reserves below, at, or above expectations. Hopefully your " expectation" of BRK underestimating the well parameters is correct.
In regards to 88e and comparing to BRK, 88e had a number of issues, well related and geological. The well was an exploration well and it seems that the well failed to prove commercial hydrocarbons. Most probably because there are no commercial hydrocarbons and this was complicated by problems down hole and at the surface with the rig.
For BRK, the hydrocarbons are there, the question mark is how the well will perform relative to expectations. The biggest risk in having a problem with the rig which is why the machinery and the crew are critical and it seems we have a top notch setup picked by our experience operations manager Lee Francis.
The other difference between 88e and BRK, even if the 88e well came in, it would take over 5 years and possibly over a $1 billion to develop to field. With BRK, the reserves are admittedly much smaller, but will only take months to get the well producing. ( August 18 2021 is my bet
)
Cheers
Dan
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