I don't think anybody can say for sure what will happen with a...

I don't think anybody can say for sure what will happen with a Greek default. I read plenty on HC and abroad how a US credit downgrade was priced in (or whatever the latest chapter in the Euro saga was playing out) last August and look at what happened when reality struck.

I'm no economist or fundamentalist so I don't know either. Having said that, the European banks have had to take some pretty hefty haircuts on their loans to Greece (30+% ?). The Euro banks are a bit of a finance house for mining operations globally. A little spec I follow had some of their approved finance package canelled when one of the German banks pulled out of the basket of lenders. I think this is a direct result of those haircuts. If there is a full default by Greece the Euro banks take a 100% haircut, there will be more of the same. Thats one effect we will see on our shores.

Europe has a history of dragging things out among themselves, it's what they do. The negotiations over Germany's austerity measures and war debt repairation payments dragged out for years into the 1920's and all of Europe suffered. In the mean time money flowed into the US instead, it was called the roaring twenties. Similar will happen now, we just have to find which market the money will flow to.

I'm more a believer in timing and cycles. If the market is in the timing band for a correction, it will use whatever news is around at the time for a correction. If it's time for a major crash, same story.

Just my opinion.