Looks like Zinifex won't get full control - see the following...

Looks like Zinifex won't get full control - see the following links.

http://news.theage.com.au/jinchuan-to-retain-allegiance-stake/20080307-1xvo.html
http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/view_article.ac?articleId=147383

So for the remaining AGM holders, if you are brave enough, you will be able to remain a minority shareholder and can not be forced to sell your shares to Zinifex because without Jinchuan they can not reach 90%.

If Zinifex get over 50% by March 20, they could decide not to extend their offer, beacause they already have control of the company, and will not be able to make Allegiance a wholly owned subsidiary. Furthermore, the merger with Oxiana will fill their earnings gap and expansion/diversification strategy - which was the whole point behind the Allegiance takeover in the first place.

Since Zinifex have said their offer is final as to price in the abscence of a superior proposal, then accordingly it appears they can not sweeten the price to get Jinchuan over the line - unless a thrid party makes a proposal.

ZFX already have over a quarter of the company - and by Monday they could be around 30%. ZFX have got so far in this battle that they would be crazy not to keep going until they hit 50%. It's pointless for them to end the takeover bid somewhere between 25% to 50%. If they could have got Jinchuan then they will almost eventually get 90% then compulsory acquire the remaining shareholders to get 100%.

I still think they will easily get 50% without Jinchuan by March 20. If you were a bookie, you would have to say it's odds-on that this episode will finish with AGM remaining listed on the exchange with minority shareholders.

It would have been good if Zinifiex could have modified the bid so that we could get scrip in the merged zinifex/oxiana entity - i would have been down for that. I wouldn't be surpised if that is what Oxiana/Zinifex do in a few years time to buy out the remaining minority shareholders.

Cheers,

Baphomet