jindal come to the party, page-17

Matt - Fundamentals is the key, I agree but because there are so many variables re CR, funding, JV etc... you will never second guess it.

I know a lot of investors who think they are "ahead of the curve" sitting on 90% losses in specchie resource plays that think they "havent lost becuase they havent sold".

The SP gets rerated when a rerating event occurs that you either know about or not. (usually not until later). The only clue you will get that there is something brewing is consistent price action that indicates someone with deep pockets is sees some upside or derisking of a material nature.

For example:

Immaterial thought. "It must be a great buy because the resource is so good"

Material thought. "Noble are on board with interezsts in a marketing services play as well as offtake. The SP rose from 7 to 12.

You are trying to overlay what knowledge you have (and we all have some good knowledge) to a complex issue for which the fundamentals are only a part of. I dont do that as I do not know, but I do know whether the SP is rising or falling and whether it looks "good" or "shite". It looked shite at TO as the smart money was exiting not buying. They were right. Lets learn a bit from other perspectives.