jjsydney

Your prediction for operating surplus of 38mill for dec quarter is too consevative.They did that in sept quarter when nickel price averaged 38800 (unhedged).
December quarter the averaged unhedged nickel price was 42100 .With drop in cu price compensated by increase in Co price production would have to drop just below 3400 tns for the quarter for 38 mill.
More likely is 3500 tons for os of 42 mill.
My guess-price to build to 225 prior to dec announcement 250 after.270 on release of financials and add 25 cents for blue sky (carnilya and all other factors you mention) plus the lower quantity hedged and higher hedge price to give for price of about $3.00 in March
Incidentally with changed hedging price this q can drop from near 16 where it is now to $14.6/lb average and os will still be $42 mill so $50 mill NPAT is possibly conservative.
Not the foward pe of 2 that someone mentioned but still outstanding at the 4 level on current sp