joelbaby, page-3

Hi loonie,

you're a real hoot.

"but the ifs joel....."
The Ifs are the most important thing loonie. UMC is a speculative investment. The IFS represent the risk to my investment. Therefore, the more IFS you can research for me the better. I've found as many as I can, and examined them to see if I consider them too much of a risk for my investing style.

Let's go through a quick risk assessment of your IFS so far:

"if we can dig it up in time .."
In time for what?
Before China stops industrializing? I would think there's a few decades left to come. India is where China was at 10 years ago.


if we can get it it to market..."
Now you're talking.
Analysis of options:
1. Hot air balloon - a bit pricey and slow.

2. Trucking.
-- a) WA Government might not approve it. However,WA Govmt approved Murchison Metals to truck a longer distance to port than UMC is.
-- b) The sealed highway goes straight to Port Hedland, and is a few kms from the tenement.

3. Mine Gate Sales.
-- Both RIO and BHP have done Mine Gate Sales in the past.
-- BHP has recentally publically stated that it is very open to these kinds of deals.

4. UMC's own carriages on BHP/RIO line.
-- Unlikely. Although government wants to make it happen, it would be delayed by a lengthy court appeals process.

5. UMC spur to FMG line.
-- Possible.


"if its good quality"
-- The highest quality iron ore you can get is about 68%Fe. The other 32% is Oxygen.
-- UMC has 80 million Tonnes at 60%+. They have holes that end in 64% Fe, and need to be drilled deeper.
-- UMC's ore is comparable to that of BHP's and RIOs. Not surprising considering its a stones throw from their deposits.
-- Most other junior company resources don't come near 60%+ quality, with low Alumina content. The only Australian one I can name is PLV, and they have only just started drilling.. (I own PLV).


"if it's good enough before we get the spot price down"

UMC has ore which has similar characteristics to BHP's mining area C (Marra Mamba).
BHP was profitably mining this ore 5 years ago when prices were US$40/t.

Other Australian juniors, have lower grades which mean:
-- A lower price achieved for their ore.
-- Extra costs in the form of beneficiation.

UMC doesn't have these costs. That's why I am in UMC. WHEN prices come down (and I think thats 2 years away), UMC is one of the LEAST likely to end up with an uneconomic resource.


"i know you know its good but does everyone else there know it"
Who knows. I think that the mining community in WA is aware of UMCs deposits. Do you think its a coincidence that BHPs new Pilbara MegaHub has railway lines terminating at UMCs deposits?


"I know you ramp it up but lets look at what its worth."
No - i'd be ramping it if UMC was full of hot air. I am happy to discuss more risk to UMC production as you uncover them.

"hence market price"
Market sentiment is low right now. When will it change?
Who knows.
That gives you all the more time to do your research.

Joel