john risk - wheat price direction?, page-4

Many thanks JR. A very valuable piece of TA for the few of us who follow the grains thread.

You can see from the chart below our basis levels are very strong at the moment which is unusual considering we are not far off our harvest.



Chinese buying activity is keeping Aussie cash prices firm and historically if basis is firming into harvest it is because we have a drought on our hands. Sellers tend to hoard and wait for desparation on the demand side. This year we are looking at a pretty big Aussie crop, certainly in the export surplus States of WA and SA. So to have a strong basis is very positive but should also make you an active seller if coverage is low going into harvest.

Interesting few weeks ahead.