Food for thought.A single drug can have a huge impact on a...

Food for thought.

A single drug can have a huge impact on a company's sales. We've mentioned many times on this forum AbbVie's drug "Humira". It's been a raging success for them. Now, the Osteoarthritis market is much larger than Humira's primary indication of Rheumatoid Arthritis - but look what it achieved in sales at it's peak....US$19.73m sales in a single year (2019), the following year AbbVie's TOTAL sales revenue was US$33.26bn.



The biosimilars mentioned above, and their subsequent impact on Humira's sales will no doubt raise some questions - so let me pre-empt those with some context. Bell Potter mentioned Humira's biosimilars in their coverage of PAR. They state that Humira was first approved for sales in the US in 2002, and the first biosimilar was approved in 2016. It took the first biosimilar 14 years to reach approval. This is going to be the same for Zilosul copycats. It's a tough road. And remember, 3 years AFTER the first biosimilar challenged Humira - it had it's record sales year of US$19.73bn.



Who knows what Zilosuls numbers will be. It's like valuing the catfood budget for next month in the Schrodinger household. I'd urge people to genuinely consider what is possible here, though. PAR's figures aren't ridiculous. They are possible, and they may well prove to be conservative.