As posted by Glendronach on JALHC.
yes patience needed. I had a good very positive chat to Michael Gray recently. He is terrif to chat to. Was on his way to BC to consolidate completion of submission. Some are defensive and will only answer the question and nothing but the question. He is very hands-on and was quite upbeat If any run off was going to flow into the river the project would never get off the ground. This of course a huge issue with Tek. Technical and selenium side of environmental issues appear to be well under control. My main concern was (and probably still is) successful engagement with the main indigenous group who are very well organised and a force to be reckoned with. Any googling for an hour or two will demonstrate that. But I think MG has it all under control. Not a walk in the park by any means overcoming all the on-going community/govt concerns. We are not sexy like Lithium and cobalt!
Reading some of the correspondence between relevant govt agencies and indigenous/community groups I believe the authorities are on-side with JAL approach. Strong criticisms from the main indigenous group were pretty much rejected. MG is well aware about the issues over the border in Alberta - this could be the last coking coal project that gets approval in Canada. The fact that its quite a small mine in comparison to existing mines is a big positive.
From my two discussions with MG, from what i have read, the measured and painstaking approach of JAL, and the tone of communication of the authorities, the probability of this project being approved to my way of thinking is around 80%. So I will hang in. I think Jamieson are overcoming the huge hurdles.
It appears our JV partner is overcoming its bankruptcy threatening legal challenges and concurrently raking in lots of cash from the rising market prices. They need reserve replenishment to survive as an on-going long term entity with little future in NZ. A few of us long termers have discussed this before - but my view is we are sitting ducks at current SP. The current JV structure will never get to production. Capital costs will increase but more than offset with more permanent consistently higher coal prices. Although not overly diluted compared to potential project returns JAL is hopelessly under-capitalised and rising project costs will not help. Announcement of BOA's would be a welcome SP driver - i forgot to discuss that with MG. Will save that one for a later day.
BRL Price at posting:
$1.23 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
