jorc estimate around the cnr

Gday guys,

IBR have previously mentioned that a JORC estimate for Armenia would be released before end of year. You would expect that it wouldn't be released during week of XMAS, so that leaves this week. Obviously mining companies rarely stick to schedules, but this company so far has been fairly reputable in this respect.

I unfortuantely have no idea what this estimate will throw up (otherwise I would have significantly more or less shares than what I do), but you would expect it will have some impact on the price given its had a decent run.

I think there are three potential ways you can play it if you are not yet an investor:

1/ Buy now (medium risk): if the estiamte turns out to be a fizzer, the price will likely drop, however downside is limited by its expected production in 06 as well as the Portugal assets which are high quality)

2/ Buy half now, half after any fizzer announcement (low risk): here you get upside from any good resource announcement, but also hedge your bets for a fall in the SP shoul the JORC estiamte be received with disappointment by the market. Any drop would make the shares very undervalued (see point 1)

3/ Buy after the announcement if a fizzer (medrisk): if the JORC estiamte turns out to be positive, the price should increase quite a bit. Thats a fair bit of upside that could be missed out on by holding out...of course conversely, if itsa fizzer you could buy more shares if SP drops.

PErsonally I've used option 2, ie have some shares now, and a bit of spare cash to buy more if SP drops.

The other option of course is to do nothing because you have no interest in this stock at all, but i didn't inlcude that since if that was the case you would not be in this post LOL.

Cdchi1