jpr valuation: reality check

I hate to rain in the Rampers Parade but:

Shares on Issue: 786m
Options: 300m
Call it 1.086B SOI if all converted (which, lets be honest, its looking like they wont be at this point and you might see why if you keep reading)

Recoverable Oil: 22mb

Profit/Barrel: AUS$35 (be slightly conservative)

Value/Share (all oil extracted; not time adjusted; 22mb x $35 / 1.086b): $0.71

BUT:
- 22,000,000 barrels of oil, at 500 barrels a day = 44,000 days of uninterrupted production, or around 120 years! Sorry, but thats how it is isnt it?

- 500 barrels/day, 365 days a year (no production outages??) at $35/barrel profit, 1 billion shares on issue = a meagre ~$0.006 / share PROFIT per year per share

- With a PER of 14 would see a share price of around $0.083

Sure if you could get it all out of the ground this find is worth far more than $0.08 but at 500 barrels per day, this share is already fully price. If you could rip all of the oil out in 12 years, Id value this share at $0.54 (discounted). Logic then says you might get 80% of that (you never realise 100% of this things), logic then also says share holders returns would be at best 50% of that. So far we have a value per share of: $0.54 * 80% * 50% = ~$0.22/share. Now a buyer doesnt wantr to pay $0.22 for a share worth $0.22 (when you can just go and get your RFRR buying govt bonds). So they want to pick up that $0.22 of value for less maybe $0.16/share.

SO my call is that at 500 bopb, a $6.3m profit per year, assuming 100% is paid to share holders (and it wont be), the share is worth ~$0.08/share. At 1000bopd the stock is worth $0.16/year if they paid all earnings as dividends. And at 1000bopd the 22mb of oil will still take 60 years to pull up (umm JPR only have a 25 year production lease by the way)

If you could get it all out JPR is still only has an NPV of $0.22/share (to the share holder) and youd pay less than that of course.

I guess what I am saying it theres a reason it isnt rocketing despite finding oil. It will be purely flow rate based and even then, they probably cant pull it out of the ground fast enough to make this share truly worth more than $0.20 even if they took 1000bopd and paid 100% of the profits to shareholders.

Rusch!

Ps. (Taking Luvsfootie off ignore just in case theres some logic here I missed and LF has some irrefutable logic that makes me believe the share is worth my than 8 cents)

Pps. To the people that said youve posted nothing before blah blah the stats say that, but I have posted off and on over the years I just dont incessantly ramp/denigrate I like to think THIS sort of discussion IS helpful. If youre emotionally attached to your share and mark it down just because you dont like what you read thats your small-minded problem.