I believe that yesterday's fireside chat was one of the most prolific and insightful offerings that Scott has given us for the future plans of the company. As always, I like to sit and digest the information and now I believe there is a clear picture being painted.
It will be important to go back and listen to the chat a few times to confirm my belief however Scott's comments are pretty clear. When you relisten keep these ideas in mind.
Future development plans and funding
Flow Test 2024 - It is pretty evident from the recent commentary that MK2 will definitely flow ‘when we flow test it, it will flow’. Data to date supports this such as the high-pressure zones in the lower Angwa, mud losses (permeability), trip gas, setting 7" casing etc. So it seems that the flowing MK2 in Q2 2024 has a high probability of success.
Funding comments - Numerous times, Scott has said that a sample to surface at MK2 will open up a range of options in reference to funding. He mentioned yesterday that African Banks provide debt facilities, pre-payments from off-takers, capital raising and Farm out. I believe that Invictus Energy has a strong possibility that they will either have bank debt funding or pre-payments from off-takers.
Sample to Surface - While Invictus could have 'officially' declared a discovery, given that the gas was simply residual in PA, they were not satisfied to make the announcement. Scott has said their internal objective is to retrieve a sample from the Upper and Lower Angwa.IMO in order to unlock the bank and/or prepayment funding facilities, these companies want a clear sample in the horizons that will flow and ultimately produce gas ($$$). They would want valid data to de-risk their investment before providing funding.
Pilot Plant Scheme - There has been continual mention of a pilot production unit after the flow test next year, which would bring early revenues for the company. Given how desperate the gas supply is in Southern Africa, off-takers would offer pre-payments to secure supply for the future even if it is as close as 12 months off. All they need is firm data to secure their investment (see above)A similar is occurring with the bank as they know how dire the situation is and, therefore how much money can be made (supply vs demand). They know if gas is brought to the surface no matter what it will be sold to the market.
Farm-in? - Previously, there always seemed more emphasis on obtaining farm in partner. However recently in IVZ's webinars, especially after the conference in South Africa, the conversation has seemingly shifted to banks, Offer-takers and the pilot plant. Scott spoke about the slow bureaucratic nature of Tier 1s which would slow the campaigns down, the long and challenging process of trying to attain a farm in partner, and how right now Invictus would be valued at significantly less given the stage of exploration and appraisal. He also mentioned that the data room is shut off and he is not allowing companies to look in at what we have. My takeaway from this is a farming could still be an option however they are now exploring alternative options (banks/off-takers) allowing us to seek non-dilutive funding to complete more exploration and appraisal much faster than if we had a farm-in partner involved. To me, it seems that the team are backing themselves and I am all for it. Scott states ’ This hasn’t happened to a company on the ASX for decades'... remember we have 80% ownership of this whole thing.
Future Development - Scott said the company is starting to build strong foundations to get the work done. The new drilling manager is developing plans to make future operations and drilling campaigns more cost-effective and efficient. So it seems Invictus want to remain the operator. Scott also mentioned establishing regional hubs of tools and locking in Exalo as there will be a lot of wells coming soon.
I don’t believe that Invictus will be the company to fully develop the field however they will want to be along the appraisal chain as high as possible to sell big to one of the big boys. With the pilot production unit generating cash, Invictus will be able to execute the exploration and appraisal campaign faster with little to no shareholder dilution. We know that over the next two years, they have intentions for 3-D over Mukuyu, 3 more walls to sink into Mukuyu and at least one exploration well outside Mukuyu. I would also be curious to know whether Invictus would plug in the three future appraisal wells of Mukuyu for further cash flow.
I do still believe that we will have a $10 million capital raising after the discovery announcement to secure funds for pre-ordering flow test and lock in the 3D seismic campaign. I would take a further 80 million share dilution over farming down a % of the play any day.
Depending on the amount that a pilot plant could generate, Invictus could still see Farm in partner however, I believe it would be after the flow test and for a lower % ownership with the deal providing high-value money so we can execute late 2024 and 2025 plans (10% for 60 million to fast track development).
Yesterday’s chat made me the most comfortable I have ever been with my holding. Incredibly grateful for Matt, Jaime and Scott for their time. Now it is just having to wait for all these plans to unfold
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- JRI Fireside chat with Scott Macmillan Tues. Nov 28 @ 9:00 Perth/12:00 Sydney
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