Hi
@Cosmoterios ... I did see some early signs of things not being quite as they should be, but let my belief that there is a lot of gas and potentially a lot of oil and condensate in the basin, added to the need for this energy in Southern Africa, override my cautiousness.
The overpressure deeper areas tell me it's going to flow (the deeper areas anyway), and the sheer size of the 'trap' is hugely positive, plus the many other traps in the basin. There are many, many billions of dollars worth of hydrocarbons in this basin, that will be extracted to the benefit of the owners. But will the current shareholders remain the owners upon production is the big question? Of course every man and his dog will try to pry ownership of the prize away from those that took the risk to explore for it in the first place, it's just human nature.
The job of the board is to navigate the treacherous waters until production for the benefit of all existing shareholders. My view is they will only be able to do this from leading by example, 'words' are no longer good enough.
IMHO Scott has shown some very poor decision making in raising the capital necessary and/or farming out parts of the project. Even the failure to release any information about what we've found, like net pay, pressures etc, is working against the company.
The market will only 'trust' the words of management so far, but it needs to be backed up by evidence, which they are failing to deliver. Right now the only way (also IMHO), to regain trust and faith from the market is to partake a lot in the cap raise, BEFORE any certainty from 'other' potential investors.
By not releasing any 'net pay', nor pressures, nor other 'usual' releases upon discovery, followed by NOT taking up rights in a cap raise, is sending a hugely negative message to the market.
It's the major reason why the SP is so low and if Scott persists in not knowing why the SP is low, it means he doesn't have much understanding of the very market where he has relied upon raising capital. Plus of course the PPSA being 'near' for years debacle, doesn't help.
I put more than my rights allocation in the cap raise, expecting Scott, who earns a lot more in wages than I do, to at least take up a decent portion of his, with the same timing as the rest of us, not some time later when the 'risk' is less.
I'm a firm believer in shareholders supporting the company in cap raises, not buying a bit cheaper on market, that doesn't help the company at all. The board's failure to recognise the importance, as in signalling to the market, of taking up their own rights shows unbelievably poor judgement IMHO, and the SP is where it is because of poor decision making.
