JRV Cobalt, page-252

Hi @Adama

Just my two cents on the Cobalt price question. As others have alluded above, I think for any commodity you can find analysts on both sides of the fence (just look at Iron Ore right now). Personally, like @Pashabulka, I see more articles predicting cobalt price growth than I do flatlining or even declining, but each perspective is always worth a read - as you note (I appreciate the even-handed nature of your comments, by the way).

Here's a few articles from the second half of last year that I read as they came out, and I think are still useful:

• 1 July 2021, 'Shortages flagged for EV materials lithium and cobalt'; https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shortages-flagged-ev-materials-lithium-cobalt-2021-07-01/
• 13 July 2021, 'The Blue Metal: Why the Outlook for Cobalt Has Changed'; https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/metals/the-blue-metal--why-the-outlook-for-cobalt-has-changed.html
• 28 September 2021, 'Global cobalt supply deficit 'not as dire,' analysts say'; https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/global-cobalt-supply-deficit-not-as-dire-analysts-say-66734094
• 28 October 2021, 'Nickel, cobalt demand to rise despite Tesla's shift to LFP'; https://www.mining-journal.com/energy-minerals-news/news/1420448/nickel-cobalt-demand-to-rise-despite-tesla%E2%80%99s-shift-to-lfp
• 29 November 2021, 'Strong growth for cobalt, but some headwinds too'; https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/strong-growth-for-cobalt-but-some-headwinds-too-lme-week-2021

Reading through these again tonight, I note that of the five selected, four are fairly bullish for 2022.

At the end of the day, whilst I would never advocate blind faith in management, part of what I'm paying for when purchasing JRV shares is the collective cobalt expertise and deep experience of Bryce, Greg, Klaus, Wayde, so to the extent that I can read analysts predictions but not foretell the future, I am happy in this case to leave myself in the hands of the aforementioned four gentlemen. With Jervois Finland now fully operational, they have their finger not just on the cobalt pulse, but in direct contact with the key customers. If they're predicting a strong 2022, I'm happy to go along on that basis until evidence dictates otherwise.

There is of course the side discussion on 'how or will cobalt be replaced in EV batteries', which I think has been done to death on these threads, but FWIW here's my last take on it: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/jrv-cobalt.6074585/page-90?post_id=56194504

Cheers,
mondy