Some really great discussion going here - wanted to add my own...

Some really great discussion going here - wanted to add my own perspective on how markets (read humans) behave and how stocks can move as a result. This was triggered by Sura's thoughtful musings.

Investor emotions/behaviours typically move on a continuum of greed and fear. We see this more often in retail investor behaviour and especially in the junior/small/micro end of the market where we see extraordinary price action based on rising and falling hopes..and therein lies the key - once hope becomes more real (or fades) as fundamental evidence emerges to support a positive or negative thesis a steady trend (up or down) in the stock price will begin. The management of a company begins to pull idiosyncratic levers that they control to determine a path for the company - that should - with time, correlate in stock price performance - bad or good depending on what management does.

We see this now in JRV where our management team has begun to derisk the company and in so doing reduce the volatility in stock price as well as placing it - through some smart work this year on a rising path. So long as we see no major missteps this trend should continue in my view.

For the really crazy hyperbolic movements in the stock price - some of which I DO think lie in our future - we will have to wait most likely either for some huge corporate action (more M&A or news on Nico Young financing etc) but more likely for something in the macro sphere (ie things our management team has less control over) to move our way.

This I guess for JRV will be a big and sudden but sustained rise in the prices of Co and Ni which I suppose many of us see coming in the next couple of years on the back of a big supply-demand imbalance in these minerals.

So sit back and create an event path for yourself - chart milestones you know the company has set out and when you see them emerging and try and contextualise this within the broader macro landscape we are operating in. We have in JRV something quite unique here as many have noted. We have a tremendous boat to operate in one of the fastest and exciting rivers on the investment landscape for the next two decades at least.

How high the share price goes is anyone's guess but if you want a great example of the story I am trying to tell about how share prices behave get up a 20yr chart of Amazon. I think our chart will adopt a similar shape (but sadly not the same absolute values) over the next 20yrs....management adopted a business model that created a great boat in a fast river (the Internet) that served them very well and saw steady appreciation in the stock price consistently. The huge value creation began as the investing world began to understand the synergies and advantages of scale and logistics that they had built. The big macro catalyst arrived in the form of Covid - which validated the business model they had built...hence the extraordinary moves in the share price over the last two years.

I think we are on similar journey...whether we are $1 or not at year end is largely immaterial (although based on my own event path and catalysts I see over the next few months I think we are likely to be in that range). I plan to stay on board this boat a long tome as it takes us down the Amazon path the journey has just literally begun...