Hi @Ashentegra
One other thing - for a contrary view on the valuation. I don't want to be rose-tinted or overly biased, but I don't believe the SP is fluffy nor overblown at current MC of $818.1m. My (simplified) rationale:
- Immediately prior to the Freeport acquisition, with 802.7m SOI and SP of 57c, the MC was $457.5m. This was effectively the market pricing in the ICO operation being fully funded, but cognizant that the bond issue required a further cap raise of at least $50m. Some element of SMP is probably priced in here, but without a BFS no one except Jervois really understands the potential, so that aspect is probably undercooked.
- Then we saw a capital raise of $312.8m (ignoring the FP acquisition, just looking at the cash raised).
- So at a simple level those two figures in bold above come to $770.4m. Based on a the expanded register of 1,513m SOI, that equates to a share price of $0.509 which is the 'TERP' mentioned in the 27 July announcement (all my purchases thus far have been 44.5c - 49.5c for that reason).
The above numbers simply take into consideration the closing market cap, and the cash raised. Obviously there was some downward SP movement as a result of the raise and for simplicity I'm not factoring that in. But on that basis, at today's close of $0.54c we're up only 6%. And that's on the basis of the $313m raised just being a static cash pile, when it clearly is not. Bearing in mind the market is a forward-looking beast, and we transformed that cash pile into the Freeport acquisition, I would argue it's entirely fair for the market to now start gradually pricing in the future 'Jervois Finland' cashflows into the equation. This will only improve if/when the cobalt price climbs and the EBITDA's from our new Finland operation head from the US$21m mark to the US$30m or US$40m's or higher.
For these reasons, even in the short term, for me there remains a lot of upside to the SP from here. I don't know about $1 by Christmas, but considering there's a paucity of 'battery minerals' companies of this size (at least, those with integrated exposure to more than just a single commodity), if institutions want exposure in the space there's not exactly a lot of other competition for their capital right now... so @quickthinker might not be far off the mark. We shall see.
Cheers,
m
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