1) i have been reading chinese commentators' views on this...

1) i have been reading chinese commentators' views on this takeover deal in mandarin. as far as they concerned, this deal is most likely to be off, since sdl and hanlong are not negotiating on the same page.

it is apparently, during the commodity price boom, china has heavily invested in foreign resource sectors, a lot of the projects turned to be overvalued and quite unprofitable later on. so under the current encomony environment they become more cautious and stingy.


Revising the bid has automatically trashed SIA and FIRB approval. They are not effective anymore. so sundance does not actually have a deal right now. Provisional approve from NDRC therefore is meanless. EVEN IF A NEW AGREEMENT REACHED, NO LEGAL CONTRACT CAN GRANTEE IT WILL STAY THE SAME BEFORE END.

As long as they predict, a long law suite and legal reaction will be starting if the deal fall. it will take toss on both sides.

2)media misleading information is very frustrating.

reuters quote:

The offer works out to 40 cents a share, a 19.4 percent premium to Sundance's last closing price on July 31.

http://af.reuters.com/article/congoNews/idAFS9E8HK02J20120806

the last closing price on july 31 is 33.5c and 40cents is only a premium of 16.25%. where is 19.4% coming from???

1-(33.5/40)= 0.1625=16.25% (plz dont bully Aussie shareholders on their poor maths)

3)if the deal goes on (only if), 43c-48c is most likely to be the case.

when hanlong puposefully leaked their confidential 50c info to the market, we were monitoring public reactions from various sources. (in another word, it is the worst scenario for them) it is certain that they were happy about what they found (most shareholders can well tolerate on 50 cent deal)
and then they pushed it to test sundance's limit (40 cent is obviously the best scenario for them and has surpassed shareholds' threshold imo)