judgement day, page-10

quiet simply, i think i have been proven wrong.

To determine when the target depth was reached, i extrapolated last week's drilling data assuming an average drill rate based on the previous weeks progress. this lead me to belive the target depth would be reach sometime late friday, saturday morning.

I allowed 1-2 days for testing and concluded that monday would be when the outcome of the drill would be known.

I assumed daily reporting between stakeholders. This assumption may be where i am wrong. Weekly drilling reports have been issued to market, maybe this is when the announcement will come. TAP may only be receiving weekly drilling updates. The outcome only really effects the market, a few days either way makes no difference to company's going forward. Its the outcome that's significant and the timing of it less so. This idea seems to make some sense. Although a discovery is material and will influence the share price, the timing of it secondary to the outcome. A week one way or the other doesn't change much, just when the price moves.

So perhaps, with this idea in mind, weekly drilling reports may be the norm. AEL and BHP to a lesser extent drill all the time and daily updates may seem a bit over the top, when you consider managing an extensive portfolio of assets.

So having been proven wrong by trying to predict the announcement, I think its important to step back, take a holistic view.

The probability of success is the same 65% i believe, the commercial interest of AEL buying in late, is positive. The original drilling campaign was scheduled to last 37 days, with 8 days downtime (tropical low) then the final finishing date is the 13/04 some 9 days away.

By stepping back a bit, the story is the same, the specualtion is still ripe, the outcome is unknown and there is nothing to suggest insiders are moving, one way or the other.

So sit tight and we will all be eagerly reading tomorrow's drilling update. Fingers crossed its the outcome we all desire.

COnfidence is a mental thing, subject to emotions, trading should be rational and based on logically drawn conclusions. Don't let your nerves/emotions dictate the desioins you make.

Good luck all.

I'm increasing my position.