Tongaface,Nicely presented. And yes my analysis has been very...

Tongaface,

Nicely presented. And yes my analysis has been very crude (linear).

Now, with out considering the "Actual Outcome" lets consider the AFE and Programmed drilling lines, blue and red respectively.

Firstly the depth is greater on the image shown above, near 5000m. This drill is just over 4000 m a little more using the MDRT, which includes the elevation difference from MSL to the drilling deck.

Furthermore, both red and blue lines are linear set like functions. Meaning the gradient between horizontal steps is constant, which implies a constant rate of drilling. This supports my assumptions using linear extrapolation from the previous drilling report.

So you can conclude that the drilling rate has a linear relationship for depth vs time. However, i failed to include the horizontal portions of the blue and red lines shown in your image. If i read it correctly there is a 3 day break at 3500m and 4,000m and a 2 day break at 4,500m in the red line. I could only assume 3 reserviors, justifying 3 testing periods, which is not uncommon at all. Or quiet possibly given the nice depth figures, they are associated to the depth of the drill. In which case, as red is the most conservative, we could allow another 3 days with some testing time for the T1 drill being conducted by BHP.

The 6 days of horizontal on the red and blue lines indicate that it is possible for the current drill to be finished on the 31st day, 07/04/2012, assuming 8 days downtime (Tropical Low).

What this collectively tells us is that my initial expectations can be pushed forward 3 days, so monday night tuesday morning timeline. Now from what i have gather, the soil is quiet hard at depth and horizontal drilling is not an option, so time delays and slowing drill rates are likely (recently attain knowledge, this supports your case. So if you allow an extra day perhaps even two, then wednesday/thursday look plausible.

So really, tuesday-thursday look to be likely to produce the goods.

As for your drilling report comments, i conceed you seem to know more about that aspect that I, and it seems logical givent the day and age.

I guess based on this analysis we could get a trading halt anytime this week. No doubt tomorrow's drilling report will hopefully shed some like.

Good luck to all.

I welcome feedback and i hope this is useful information for others.

I increased my postion as I declared i would earlier.