First thing to note - the original post here cannot be right. It...

First thing to note - the original post here cannot be right. It is not in Gillard's nature to go quietly. She won't be gone quietly by Wednesday. It would take a coup, challenge or spill.

Second, some =like Justis = like to hypothesise that a return to Rudd will see him leading the team to the Light on the Hill because of polls like the recent Galaxy thaat showed him a winner. Wont happen. Any poll is imprecise, just a snapshot of thought bubbles at a moment in time. If that snapshot is of a hypothetical scenario to boot ... you can see where I'm going. A poll between two leaders/parties has some legitimacy, but one that plays the "what if, what if" has none. What legitimacy would a poll have pitting Rudd v Turnbull? Absolutely none.

If Rudd were to become leader soon a few things come into play. First, his "honeymoon" in the hypothetical polling would crash to earth quickly; punters would quickly realise it's a contest between Abbott and Kevin 07 Redux. He'd be behind, maybe not as far as Gillard. People aren't dumb. They know the problem is labor, not the captain at the moment.

More importantly, assume Rudd is PM in a week or two. Gillard is dumped by her Party. What would Gillard, Swan, Roxon, Conroy and a host of others who bagged him mercilessly 12 months ago then do? Be good Labor people and sit on the back bench propping him up? Sound out job opportunities and resign from parliament? I'm betting the latter is more likely. There would be a raft of resignations and by=elections. There'd be no reason for them to stay. We'd have an early election. Labor would be in disarray.

Assume something happens and Gillard rolls Rudd again. He's smart. He'd know it's all over red rover. He knows Julie Bishop is disposed to utilising his talents as a diplomat when she's Minister. There'd be no reason for him to stay and prop up Gillard and EVERY reason for him to bring the whole pack of cards tumbling down by resigning and forcing a by=election. Bill Glasson would win that seat for the Libs. McClelland will be gone in a few weeks also.

A challenge WILL have consequences that many ignore, however it ends.